What’s on Your Mind?
There’s been a major disconnect between expectations and reality in our society. For context, CIEL AMBRÈ is an American based company however these same sentiments may apply for you as well if you are reading this from another country.
In my opinion, to truly secure the future of your family, you have to forecast 7-10 years into the future. My reasoning for this is because the things we do today affect us that far into the future. For instance the AI advancements that have most of the world nervous about the future, will not fully materialize into tangible changes in the way we live our lives for another 5-7 years, strictly because the business world and government move slow.
Lately I’ve been paying a lot of attention to the cost of living vs the state of wages in America. The data has helped me to make a few inferences about what the longterm future looks like and how we will shift as a country from ideals that used to be the norm.
Here’s two things I’m noticing:
- Retirement is a rich man’s game
- Small and efficient business will be encouraged over large corporation
How Did We Get Here?
Let’s break it down starting with my predictions on how retirement is and will be a rich man’s game. Initially considering the state of the economy, you may think that the obvious answer is inflation. While this is part of the problem, it doesn’t quite explain the whole story.
Retirement was adopted as a concept by the government in the early 1900’s. Specifically the social security act was signed into law in 1935. If you look back to that time, the most common occupations were in farming, military, and other physically laborious occupations. These kinds of occupations honestly make sense to retire from and we still have laborious occupations today that people should definitely be able to retire from. In my honest opinion these physically taxing occupations should contribute more towards retirement for individuals who work these roles.
Today, 60-70% of Americans work jobs that do not require much physical labor at all. This is a benefit of the digital era that we entered into during the late 90’s. Computers and technology are widely availabe and it is how we communicate and work these days. While we long for retirement because it has been “promised” to us, the truth is that we sit, think, and type for a living which can be done throughout the entirety of life unless serious medical issues arise. It makes mathematical sense why baby boomer’s are still in the workforce. Retiring from a low effort, decent paying job to do nothing around the house is not necessarily appealing. However, due to inflation, the reality is that vacationing and traveling is nearly impossible for those living on limited income in retirement. If we are honest with ourselves, the vision of retirement is being free from work and free to do what you want. This is why true retirement is becoming a game for the rich. It is unreasonably expensive to fund the retirement we all truly want, and we work jobs in today’s era that do not rely on our physical health.
Silver Lining
The silver lining here is that the days of large corporations being supremely dominant is slowly coming to an end. Giant companies are beginning to show cracks in their foundation and legislation is beginning to sway towards policies that ensure a future of small, efficient business is in the cards. In the short term, this means a lot of pain in the economy due to these large companies and corporations attempting to downsize and lean out in order to handle the economic conditions. In the long term, this creates a significant opportunity in the business world for small, nimble, and efficient businesses to exist and be successful.
If you pay attention to today’s consumer, you can also see the tendency and willingness to stray away from larger more established corporations as well. This is ultimately due to an extremely competitive business environment caused by the current economic conditions. Consumers want maximum quality and individualism. People want to be different and feel different, which means companies such as Nike can even find themselves navigating rough waters. While Nike produces quality products, these products are mass produced and highly recognizable. Today’s consumer wants to pay premium prices to own and experience things that have a new or lesser known story which scratches the itch of exclusivity that Nike used to provide with limited releases of Jordan brand shoes. However, every piece in a consumer’s closet cannot be premium so consumers flock to the cheapest possible products and prices for necessities. This is what made H&M successful last decade and has caused Shein to takeover that space in this decade. I believe this is because we have become a more digital society with less emphasis on in person experiences, which has reduced the amount of societal pressure to be like everyone else or fit in.
The future of the next 7-10 years is the continued rise of individualism which is a unique experience that only small or medium sized business can offer. As our society becomes more digital and personalized, people will want the same for the products that they use and experience.
If you are not currently building something, I highly suggest you give it some thought as it could help you to secure the lifestyle you want for your family.